Obama Averages 44% Approval in 3rd Year; Averaged 43% job approval in most recent quarter in office.
Byline: Jeffrey M. Jones
Synopsis: President Barack Obama averaged 44% job approval for his third year in office, which ended Jan. 19. His third-year average is down slightly from his second-year average of 47% and remains well below his first-year average of 57%.
PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama averaged 44% job approval for his third full year in office, which ended Jan. 19. His third-year average is down slightly from his second-year average of 47% and much lower than his first-year average of 57%.
Obama's third-year average is based on approximately 175,000 interviews with U.S. adults conducted between Jan. 20, 2011 -- the second anniversary of his inauguration -- and Jan. 19, 2012.
Obama's job approval rating during his third year in office had its ups and downs, peaking at 53% in May and falling as low as 38% in August and October.
The higher ratings in May occurred after U.S. Navy Seals found and killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan. Obama enjoyed a sustained rally in job approval -- his first real rally in public support -- averaging 50% approval for the month of May.
In late summer, after negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling concluded, his job approval rating reached a term-low three-day average of 38%, which was matched in October.
In the final weeks of 2011 and early days of 2012, Obama's job approval rating showed some positive momentum, generally landing in the mid-40% range.
Obama's Third-Year Average Is Among the Lowest for Elected Presidents
Looking just at other elected presidents' third-year averages, Obama's 44% is among the lowest, better than only Jimmy Carter's 37% average in 1979-1980. Ronald Reagan's third-year average of 45% was similar to Obama's.
The fourth year in office for presidents is obviously critical, as they seek re-election. Historically, there is no clear pattern in the trajectory of presidents' job approval ratings from the third year to the fourth. Specifically, Dwight Eisenhower's and Carter's averages were essentially the same in their third and fourth years. Richard Nixon, Reagan, and Bill Clinton saw significant increases, and all were re-elected. George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush both saw significant declines in their approval ratings during their fourth year in office, with the elder Bush being defeated for re-election and the younger Bush winning a second term.
From a broader historical perspective, comparing Obama's third-year numbers with all presidential years in...
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