Obama, National Issues Play Large Role in Voter Preferences; Nearly half of likely voters say country will be better off if Republicans win.
Byline: Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad
Synopsis: Likely voters are more apt to be using their vote to send a message that they oppose the president than support him. Also, voters backing GOP candidates are more likely than those backing Democrats to be casting their vote against the opposing candidate. These and other patterns conform with prior midterms in which power changed hands.
PRINCETON, NJ -- By 38% to 24%, Tuesday's voters are more likely to be using their vote for Congress to send a message that they oppose President Obama than to signal that they support him, while 37% say they will not be sending a message with their vote.
Obama has been front and center in these midterm elections, both as a target for disaffected Republican voters and as a campaigner for Democratic candidates. The tendency of today's likely voters to be sending a message against Obama rather than in support of him is similar to 2006 when more voters were issuing a message against President George W. Bush than for him. By contrast, in 2002 and 1998, voters were either mostly casting their vote as a show of support for the president or were evenly divided in their intentions.
These results are based on likely voters for each election, using Gallup's final pre-election polls. The 2010 results come from a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Oct. 28-31, showing Republicans leading the Democrats among likely voters, 55% to 40%.
Pulled Toward the GOP or Pushed Away From the Democrats?
A compelling question about likely voters' overall preference for the Republicans this year is whether their vote reflects more of an attraction to the Republican Party or a reaction against the Democratic Party. Among those supporting Republican candidates, 54% say their vote is more a vote for the Republican candidate, while 32% call it mainly a vote against the Democratic candidate. This compares with 67% of Democratic backers saying they are voting for their candidate and 21% voting against the Republican candidate.
Generally speaking, the party that has the advantage in "anti-votes" -- this year, the Republicans -- is the party that wins the majority. The 32% of Republican likely voters who say they are voting mainly against the Democrat is similar to the percentage of Democratic supporters who were voting against the Republicans in 2006 -- then 38%. It is also similar to the 33% of Republican voters who were mainly voting against the Democrat in 1994.
Even so, while...
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