Wiley (Books and Journals)
- International Migration From No. 1-2, April 1963 to No. 56-6, December 2018 Wiley, 2022
- Public Administration From No. 1-1, January 1923 to No. 97-4, December 2019 Wiley, 2022
- Public Administration and Development From No. 4-S2, October 1952 to No. 39-4-5, October 2019 Wiley, 2022
- Global Policy From No. 1-1, January 2010 to No. 10-4, November 2019 Wiley, 2022
- British Journal of Industrial Relations From No. 1-1, February 1963 to No. 58-4, December 2020 Wiley, 2021
- British Journal of Management From No. 1-1, April 1990 to No. 32-1, January 2021 Wiley, 2021
- Journal of Law and Society From No. 24-1, March 1997 to No. 48-1, March 2021 Wiley, 2021
- Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics From No. 35-1, February 1973 to No. 82-6, December 2021 Wiley, 2021
- Scottish Journal of Political Economy From No. 1-1, March 1954 to No. 68-1, February 2021 Wiley, 2021
- The Howard Journal of Crime and Justice From No. 55-1-2, May 2016 to No. 59-4, December 2020 Wiley, 2021
- The Modern Law Review From No. 1-1, June 1937 to No. 83-6, November 2020 Wiley, 2021
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Variance Decomposition Analysis for Nonlinear Economic Models1
In this paper, we propose a new method called the total variance method and algorithms to compute and analyse variance decomposition for nonlinear economic models. We provide theoretical and empirical examples to compare our method with the only existing method called generalized forecast error variance decomposition (GFEVD). We find that the results from the two methods are different when shocks
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Testing the Technology of Human Capital Production: A General‐to‐Restricted Framework
Studies of childhood development have suggested human capital is accumulated in complex and nonlinear ways. Nonetheless, empirical analyses of this process often impose a linear functional form. This paper investigates which technology assumptions matter in quantitative models of human capital production. I propose a general‐to‐restricted procedure to test the production technology, placing...
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The Impact of the 2008 Crisis on UK Prices: What We Can Learn from the CPI Microdata1
This paper takes the locally collected price quotes used to construct the CPI index in the UK for the period 1996–2013 and explores the impact of the Great Recession (2008‐9) on the pricing behaviour of firms. We develop a time series framework which captures the link between macroeconomic variables and the behaviour of prices in terms of the frequency of price change, the dispersion of price...
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A Simple Estimator of Two‐Dimensional Copulas, with Applications1
Copulas are distributions with uniform marginals. Non‐parametric copula estimates may violate the uniformity condition in finite samples. We look at whether it is possible to obtain valid piecewise linear copula densities by triangulation. The copula property imposes strict constraints on design points, making an equi‐spaced grid a natural starting point. However, the mixed‐integer nature of the...
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Gains from Wage Flexibility and the Zero Lower Bound*
We analyse the welfare impact of greater wage flexibility in the presence of an occasionally binding zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate. We show that the ZLB constraint generally amplifies the adverse effects of greater wage flexibility on welfare when the central bank follows a conventional Taylor rule. When demand shocks are the driving force, the ZLB implies that an
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The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States
We estimate state‐dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We use a factor‐augmented interacted vector autoregression (FAIVAR) model. This allows us to capture the time‐varying monetary policy characteristics including the recent zero interest rate lower bound (ZLB) state, to account for the state of the business cycle and to address the limited information problem...
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The Individual Poverty Incidence of Growth
The canonical approach to analyse the poverty impact of growth is based on the comparison of poverty before and after growth. Measurement tools endorsing this approach fail to capture the different experiences of poverty dynamic in the population: there can be groups of the population made poorer or non‐poor made poor by growth. We propose an approach that allows measuring this individual poverty
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Modelling Category Inflation with Multiple Inflation Processes: Estimation, Specification and Testing1
Zero‐inflated ordered probit (ZIOP) and middle‐inflated ordered probit (MIOP) models are finding increasing favour in the discrete choice literature. We propose generalizations to these models – which collapse to their ZIOP/MIOP counterparts under a set of simple parameter restrictions – with respect to the inflation process. These generalizations form the basis of a new specification test of the
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Mixed Causal–Noncausal Autoregressions: Bimodality Issues in Estimation and Unit Root Testing1
This paper stresses the bimodality of the likelihood function of the Mixed causal–noncausal AutoRegressions (MAR), and it is shown that the bimodality issue becomes more salient as the causal root approaches unity from below. The consequences are important as the roots of the local maxima are typically interchanged, attributing the noncausal component to the causal one and vice‐versa. This...
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Response Surface Regressions for Critical Value Bounds and Approximate p‐values in Equilibrium Correction Models1
We consider the popular ‘bounds test’ for the existence of a level relationship in conditional equilibrium correction models. By estimating response surface models based on about 95 billion simulated F‐statistics and 57 billion t‐statistics, we improve upon and substantially extend the set of available critical values, covering the full range of possible sample sizes and lag orders, and allowing...
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Mildly Explosive Autoregression with Anti‐persistent Errors*
An asymptotic distribution is derived for the least squares (LS) estimate of a first‐order autoregression with a mildly explosive root and anti‐persistent errors. While the sample moments depend on the Hurst parameter asymptotically, the Cauchy limiting distribution theory remains valid for the LS estimates in the model without intercept and a model with an asymptotically negligible intercept....
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Do ECB's Monetary Policies Benefit EMEs? A GVAR Analysis on the Global Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises and Postcrises Period*
This paper studies the spillover effects of the ECB's monetary policies on non‐euro area countries, using a GVAR methodology, shadow rate for advanced economies (Wu and Xia, 2016) and shock identification through Cholesky decomposition. A euro‐area shadow interest rate hike triggers a broad‐based decline in output abroad, especially in Central, Eastern and South‐Eastern European (CESEE) economies,
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Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation*
Can an increase in uncertainty generate a fall in labour force participation? This paper supports an affirmative answer to this question. Using a structural vector autoregressive model, I show that: (i) a surge in uncertainty leads to a decrease in participation; (ii) uncertainty shocks account for a considerable proportion of participation fluctuations; and (iii) uncertainty shocks have in...
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Markup Dispersion and Firm Entry: Evidence from Ethiopia*
This paper examines whether and to what extent markups can influence structural transformation in a developing country by creating entry barriers. We exploit information from the Ethiopian annual census of manufacturing establishments to estimate markups and their dispersion at industry and woreda‐industry‐wide levels. We then analyse the relationship between markup dispersion and firm entry...
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Does Capital Account Liberalization Affect Income Inequality?*
By adopting an identification strategy of difference‐in‐difference estimation combined with propensity score matching between liberalized and closed countries, this paper provides robust evidence that opening the capital account is associated with an increase in income inequality in developing countries. Specifically, capital account liberalization, in the long run, is associated with a reduction
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The Evolution of Income Risk and Consumption Insurance in South Korea over the Last Two Decades*
Using data from the Korea Labor Income Panel Study, we study the evolution of income risk and consumption insurance against transitory and permanent income shocks in South Korea over the last two decades. We find a decreasing trend in both income and consumption risks. Furthermore, we estimate that 47.6% of permanent income shocks and 9.8% of transitory income shocks pass through to consumption....
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A Unified test for the Intercept of a Predictive Regression Model*
Testing the predictability of the predictive regression model is of great interest in economics and finance. Recently, (Zhu et al. (2014) Predictive regressions for macroeconomic data, Vol. 8, pp. 577–594.) proposed a unified test to account for this issue. Their test has a desirable property that its limit distribution is standard regardless of the regressor being stationary, near unit root or...
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Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining: Cleansing Effects of the Portuguese Financial Crisis*
Using firm‐level data, this paper shows that the Portuguese financial crisis was a period of intensified productivity‐enhancing reallocation. Aggregate productivity gains, both in manufacturing and services, came from relatively higher contributions of entering and exiting firms and from reallocation of resources between surviving firms. At the micro level, the crisis reduced the probability of...
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The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in US States and Metropolitan Areas*
The growth of globalization in recent decades has increased the importance of external factors as drivers of the business cycle in many countries. Globalization affects countries not just at the macro level but at the level of states and metro areas as well. This paper isolates the relative importance of global, national and region‐specific shocks as drivers of the business cycle in individual US
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Delinquency, Arrest and Early School Leaving*
Boys typically initiate delinquent behaviour during their teenage years, and many go on to be arrested. We show that engaging in delinquency and being arrested in youth are each associated with early school leaving. The effect of delinquency on school leaving is largely driven by crimes that produce a monetary return, and the increase in school leaving is greater when onset of these types of...
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The Good and Bad Volatility: A New Class of Asymmetric Heteroskedastic Models
This paper introduces a new class of tractable asymmetric heteroskedastic models, the good and bad volatility (GBV). Asymmetry is recognized in the dynamics of GBV components that correspond to positive and negative shocks respectively. The GBV model allows both conditional semivariances to evolve according to two separate functional forms with different semi‐definite distributions. An empirical...
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Communities of scholars and communities of practice
This article is a contribution to the occasional series dealing with a major book that has influenced the author. Previous contributors include Stewart Macaulay, John Griffith, William Twining, Carol Harlow, Geoffrey Bindman, Harry Arthurs, André‐Jean Arnaud, Alan Hunt, Michael Adler, Lawrence O. Gostin, John P. Heinz, Roger Brownsword, Roger Cotterrell, Nicola Lacey, Carol J. Greenhouse, David...
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Supremacy and hegemony: a reply to Palmer and Martin
In a 2019 article in this journal, which drew on previous work, we argued by examination of a number of extremely important cases that the senior judiciary is in the process of attempting to create judicial supremacy in the UK. It is doing so, not by democratic debate, but by legal procedural innovation incomprehensible to the electorate. Invited by the journal to reply to a criticism of our...
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Governing canal life
This article focuses on the governance of canals in England and Wales. The Canal & River Trust (CRT), the owner and manager of the waterways, has a statutory responsibility to grant ‘certificates’ or licences. The licence constructs a category called ‘continuous cruisers’ who live aboard their boat. Drawing on a sample of interviews with ‘continuous cruiser liveaboards’ (CCLs), we discuss how...
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Capabilities, capacity, and consent: sexual intimacy in the Court of Protection
This article uses original data from research at the Court of Protection to explore capacity to consent to sex in practice. It argues that the approach under the Mental Capacity Act 2005 fails to place appropriate focus on consent as central to understanding sexual capacity. The capabilities approach to justice is then used to demonstrate the limitations of the existing legal approach to capacity
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Unsecured lending and the indigenous economy in Australia and South Africa
Consumer credit is closely regulated in both Australia and South Africa. Nevertheless, unsecured lending often results in financial hardship in low‐income communities. One aspect of this picture is the impact of the consumer debt burden on the Indigenous economy, which is disproportionately affected by poverty in both countries. Here we juxtapose the comparative regulatory regimes and then...
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Mavericks or misconstruction? A reply to Campbell and Allan
In a jurisdiction without a codified constitution clearly demarcating the role of the courts, and given the centrality of the principle of parliamentary sovereignty to the United Kingdom's constitutional framework, criticism of the courts for overstepping the mark – particularly in politically contentious cases – is par for the course. In their 2019 article, Professors David Campbell and James...